Deep recurrent reinforced learning model to compare the efficacy of targeted local versus national measures on the spread of COVID-19 in the UK

OBJECTIVES: To prevent the emergence of new waves of COVID-19 caseload and associated mortalities, it is imperative to understand better the efficacy of various control measures on the national and local development of this pandemic in space–time, characterise hotspot regions of high risk, quantify the impact of under-reported measures such as international travel and project the likely effect of control measures in the coming weeks. METHODS: We applied a deep recurrent reinforced learning based model to evaluate and predict the spatiotemporal effect of a combination of control measures on COVID-19 cases and mortality at the local authority (LA) and national scale in England, using data from week 5 to 46 of 2020, including an expert curated control measure matrix, official statistics/government data and a secure web dashboard to vary magnitude of control measures. RESULTS: Model predictions of the number of cases and mortality of COVID-19 in the upcoming 5 weeks closely matched the actual values (cases: root mean squared error (RMSE): 700.88, mean absolute error (MAE): 453.05, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE): 0.46, correlation coefficient 0.42; mortality: RMSE 14.91, MAE 10.05, MAPE 0.39, correlation coefficient 0.68). Local lockdown with social distancing (LD_SD) (overall rank 3) was found to be ineffective in preventing outbreak rebound following lockdown easing compared with national lockdown (overall rank 2), based on prediction using simulated control measures. The ranking of the effectiveness of adjunctive measures for LD_SD were found to be consistent across hotspot and non-hotspot regions. Adjunctive measures found to be most effective were international travel and quarantine restrictions. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the importance of using adjunctive measures in addition to LD_SD following lockdown easing and suggests the potential importance of controlling international travel and applying travel quarantines. Further work is required to assess the effect of variant strains and vaccination measures

Challenges and solutions to recruitment of neonates and children having cardiac surgery into a study using a novel sampling device

OBJECTIVE: To narratively describe the challenges and solutions required in delivering a non-commercial study of children undergoing cardiac surgery using a novel subcutaneous hormone collection device. RESULTS: The challenges faced by the research team are divided into those of conducting healthcare research in children and those specific to this study. Many of the issues of conducting healthcare research in children can and have been overcome by structural and institutional culture change–normalising and embedding research as part of good clinical care. The issues specific to insertion and maintenance of the novel collection device can be overcome by education and support of the clinical teams. The increased incentives and resources of commercial research may have overcome many of these

Disparity in clinical outcomes after cardiac surgery between private and public (NHS) payers in England

Background: there is little known about how payer status impacts clinical outcomes in a universal single-payer system such as the UK National Health Service (NHS). The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between payer status (private or public) and clinical outcomes following cardiac surgery from NHS providers in England. Methods: the National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit (NACSA) registry was interrogated for patients who underwent adult cardiac surgery in England from 2009 to 2018. Information on socioeconomic status were provided by linkage with the Iteration of the English Indices of Deprivation (IoD). The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included incidence of in-hospital postoperative cerebrovascular accident (CVA), renal dialysis, sternal wound infection, and re-exploration. To assess whether payer status was an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality, binomial generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were fitted along with 17 items forming the EuroSCORE and the IoD domains. Findings: the final sample consisted of 280,209 patients who underwent surgery in 31 NHS hospitals in England from 2009 to 2018. Of them, 5,967 (2.1%) and 274,242 (97.9%) were private and NHS payers respectively. Private payer status was associated with a lower risk of in-hospital mortality (OR 0.79; 95%CI 0.65 – 0.97;P = 0.026), CVA (OR 0.77; 95%CI 0.60 – 0.99; P = 0.039), need for re-exploration (OR 0.84; 95%CI 0.72 – 0.97; P = 0.017) and with non-significant lower risk of dialysis (OR 0.84; 95%CI 0.69 – 1.02; P = 0.074). Private payer status was found to be independently associated with lower risk of in-hospital mortality in the elective subgroup (OR 0.76; 95%CI 0.61 – 0.96; P = 0.020) but not in the non-elective subgroup (OR 1.01; 95%CI 0.64 – 1.58; P = 0.976). Interpretation: In conclusion, using a national database, we have found evidence of significant beneficial effect of payer status on hospital outcomes following cardiac surgery in favour of private payers regardless their socioeconomic factors.</p

Patterns of cytokine release and association with new onset of post-cardiac surgery atrial fibrillation

IntroductionPostoperative Atrial Fibrillation (POAF) is a common complication of cardiac surgery, associated with increased mortality, stroke risk, cardiac failure and prolonged hospital stay. Our study aimed to assess the patterns of release of systemic cytokines in patients with and without POAF.MethodsA post-hoc analysis of the Remote Ischemic Preconditioning (RIPC) trial, including 121 patients (93 males and 28 females, mean age of 68 years old) who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and aortic valve replacement (AVR). Mixed-effect models were used to analyze patterns of release of cytokines in POAF and non-AF patients. A logistic regression model was used to assess the effect of peak cytokine concentration (6 h after the aortic cross-clamp release) alongside other clinical predictors on the development of POAF.ResultsWe found no significant difference in the patterns of release of IL-6 (p = 0.52), IL-10 (p = 0.39), IL-8 (p = 0.20) and TNF-α (p = 0.55) between POAF and non-AF patients. Also, we found no significant predictive value in peak concentrations of IL-6 (p = 0.2), IL-8 (p = &gt;0.9), IL-10 (p = &gt;0.9) and Tumour Necrosis Factor Alpha (TNF-α)(p = 0.6), however age and aortic cross-clamp time were significant predictors of POAF development across all models.ConclusionsOur study suggests no significant association exists between cytokine release patterns and the development of POAF. Age and Aortic Cross-clamp time were found to be significant predictors of POAF

Trend and early outcomes in isolated surgical aortic valve replacement in the United Kingdom

ObjectiveSurgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) is traditionally the gold-standard treatment in patients with aortic valve disease. The advancement of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) provides an alternative treatment to patients with high surgical risks and those who had previous cardiac surgery. We aim to evaluate the trend, early clinical outcomes, and the choice of prosthesis use in isolated SAVR in the United Kingdom.MethodsAll patients (n = 79,173) who underwent elective or urgent isolated surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) from 1996 to 2018 were extracted from the National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit database. Patients who underwent additional procedures and emergency or salvage SAVR were excluded from the study. Trend and clinical outcomes were investigated in the whole cohort. Patients who had previous cardiac surgery, high-risk groups (EuroSCORE II &gt;4%), and predicted/observed mortality were evaluated. Furthermore, the use of biological prostheses in five different age groups, that are &lt;50, 50–59, 60–69, 70–79, and &gt;80, was investigated. Clinical outcomes between the use of mechanical and biological aortic valve prostheses in patients &lt;65 years old were analyzed.ResultsThe number of isolated SAVR increased across the study period with an average of 4,661 cases performed annually after 2010. The in-hospital/30-day mortality rate decreased from 5.28% (1996) to 1.06% (2018), despite an increasing trend in EuroSCORE II. The number of isolated SAVR performed in octogenarians increased from 596 to 2007 (the first year when TAVR was introduced in the UK) to 872 in 2015 and then progressively decreased to 681 in 2018. Biological prosthesis usage increased across all age groups, particularly in the 60–69 group, from 24.59% (1996) to 81.87% (2018). There were no differences in short-term outcomes in patients &lt;65 years old who received biological or mechanical prostheses.ConclusionSurgical aortic valve replacement remains an effective treatment for patients with isolated aortic valve disease with a low in-hospital/30-day mortality rate. The number of patients with high-risk and octogenarians who underwent isolated SAVR and those requiring redo surgery has reduced since 2016, likely due to the advancement in TAVR. The use of biological aortic prostheses has increased significantly in recent years in all age groups

Impact of off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting on survival:current best available evidence

The superiority of either off-pump (OPCAB) or on-pump (ONCAB) coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) remains unclear despite a large body of literature evidence comparing the two approaches. The potential advantages of avoiding cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB), minimizing aortic manipulation and maintaining pulsatile flow may be associated with reduced inflammatory responses and embolic events. Numerous studies compared OPCAB with ONCAB and the cumulative data have been presented in meta-analyses of both randomized and observational studies. Although there is an abundance of data with respect to the operative morbidity and mortality and the short-term outcomes associated with these two strategies, not much is known about how they impact long-term survival and recurrence of myocardial ischaemic events. Recent studies and meta-analyses have focused on long-term survival and major secondary outcomes in OPCAB vs. ONCAB within the general population. Significant limitations in methodology, however, have raised concerns about the strength of several randomized trials with restrictive inclusion criteria that reduced the populations to those at low risk only, thus creating result bias. Here, we present a review of the best available evidence with a focus on long-term outcomes